Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
