Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
The Wolves squad recorded a decrease of 10 goals from open-play situations than at this stage last season.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight season so far concerns the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams are finding goals increasingly from set-plays instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, there have been 39 fewer goals in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less overall.

Examining overall statistics, shot attempts clubs are making show an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time last season.

Regardless of the notable jump in set-play finishes, we've actually seen a mere two extra shots created from these situations outside of penalties, indicating how effective clubs have been at devising strategies to convert from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Show the Tale

The 301 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far averages out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only 196 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the least for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76).

That campaign also marks the only Premier League season to witness goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Sides Are Most Responsible?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen the largest decline, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is very much a trend among London clubs, with five out of the London's seven clubs recording at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.

In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting lots of scores at the early stages of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to convert in open play this campaign.

At the same time City have recorded the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season coming in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three more goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in their first 11 games on their way to demotion last season.

Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with both sides replacing the five less goals that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

United have netted double the number scores from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 last season ahead of their coach took over, while the Black Cats again prove more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Man City don't seem to have got the trend about scoring more from set-plays, because they've netted three less than the previous campaign, similar to Forest, though that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by netting less goals from open-play and more from set-plays, while Manchester City represent the sole team to go against the grain up to now by performing the complete reverse.

It will be interesting to see if teams persist to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their all-round creativity and begin scoring more goals in open-play also.

James Reid
James Reid

Financial analyst specializing in precious metals with over 15 years of market experience, providing data-driven insights on gold investments.